of the crops in the United States are planted, the time required may be as much as 18 months before additional production can be of any help. Many countries in the tropics and in the southern hemisphere can grow another crop following a poor crop in less elapsed time than a crop can be grown and shipped to them. If drought or adverse growing conditions extended for two or more years, the United States might be able to provide assistance out of stocks, and then increase production to rebuild stocks. For several years the United States has held some land out of production. For 1974 all cropland will be available for production. In addition, the additional production might be stimulated using the technique outlined in response to question 17.

If the definition of foodstuffs is broadened to include items other than agricultural products, it should be noted that the production of fish and fish products could be increased, providing a supplementary source of protein.

Question 31. Most reports assume normal rainfall and otherwise normal weather conditions in making estimates. Have studies been made as to why climatic changes are occurring, their effect on the food supply and possibly solutions based on information other than normal weather conditions?

Answer. Briefly stated, several studies are now in progress on the effect of climatic variations on food supply. It might also be noted that long-term projections of production of agricultural crops often include several sets of assumptions, which may include (although not explicitly stated) judgments concerning weather and its effects.

The subject of food supply is extremely complex, and weather is only one of many factors that can be accounted for in making estimates. Changes in technology (which can neutralize adverse weather, i.e., create "normal" conditions), economic conditions (such as income levels, prices), and governmental decisions are among the major factors other than weather that influence supply levels. Turning to weather, as it affects food supply, the question as posed implicitly assumes that climatic changes are occurring. In spite of widespread publicity in the press and news periodicals, climatologists and meteorologists are not in general agreement that a global shift in climate is underway. Cautionary statements tend to be overshadowed by articles such as that in a recent issue of U.S. News and World Report (September 3: "World's 'Crazy' Weather: Is Major Change Underway?") which flatly asserts that "there is growing evidence around the world that a major shift in the earth's weather may be underway” and notes that a leading European climatologist believes that recent erratic weather patterns "may be signaling the greatest shift in world climate since the eighteenth century." Recent articles of a similar nature are found in The Economist (June 23. 1973) and The Journal of Commerce (July 23 and 24, 1973).

Although unusual weather phenomena have been observed in the past few years, the causes of the phenomena and their significance in terms of a major climatic change are subject to much debate. For example, it is argued that the earth is undergoing a general cooling trend. At the same time, others postulate that the globe is warming up. A major difficulty lies in the fact that scientific observations of weather and reliable quantitative data are of fairly recent origin, and do not really extend far enough into the past to permit a final judgment on such matters as weather cycles and short-run or long-run trends.

However, based on the assumption that climatic shifts could occur, several current studies now in progress are considering the long-term effects of such change in the United States. One study (reported from Purdue University) hypothesizes an increase in atmospheric pollution with increased use of supersonic transport aircraft. The resulting reduction in solar radiation could cause a decrease in global surface temperature and a decrease in precipitation. Based on the assumption that temperature could decrease 2 degrees C (4 degrees F) between 20 and 40 degrees latitude and 3 degrees C (5 degrees F) from 40 to 60 degrees latitude (an extreme case), research models indicate reductions in crop yields and a marked southward shift of ecological crop limits. For example, the northern border of the corn belt might move south from central Minnesota and southern Wisconsin and Michigan to southern Iowa and central Illinois and Indiana. Winter vegetable production in Florida, California, and the Southwest would decline with increased risk of frost and freeze.

Another study is currently underway as a joint project of agro-meteorologists in the Federal Government, at State Experiment Stations and at academic institutions. This study assumes that a warning trend is occurring, that crop yields could drop as a result, and that the drop in yields could be as high as (a) 3 per

cent and (b) 6 percent. Weather factors are being studied to determine what combinations would result in the indicated yield reductions, and historical weather data will be analyzed to determine the probability of such occurrences. Climatic change is the subject of still another study now in progress at the University of Wisconsin. This project involves a multidisciplinary effort, combining the talents of agrometeorologists, economists, biologists, as well as those from other disciplines. The study postulates climatic change in terms of shortterm fluctuations, with an underlying and basic long-term trend. The implications of this trend, to agriculture and other economic sectors, are being considered. Question 32. How broad is the gap between per capita production and per capita. consumption of wheat and coarse grains in the developing countries? Please be specific.

Answer: The gap between per capita wheat production and consumption in the developing countries1 increased slightly from 12 kilos in 1960–66 and 1969–71 to 13 in 1972. It is estimated to have increased greatly to 17 in 1973. The opposite is true for coarse grains; whereas the gap between per capita coarse grain production and consumption was 3 in 1964-66 and 1969–71 it was zero in 1972 and is estimated at this level in 1973.

TABLE 1. PER CAPITA PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAIN IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Question 35. Why did the U.S. refuse to consider earlier FAO proposals for grain reserves? What is the difference between the present and previous proposals that has led the U.S. Government to support it?

The United States declined to consider earlier FAO proposals for grain reserves since they infringed upon our national policy of price suport and disposition of surplus supplies thru cash sales and concessional grants on a bilateral aid basis as provided in Public Law 480.

Many proposals have been made for undertaking international agricultural adjustments, the most prominent being multinational forums to negotiate commodity agreements, establishment of quota systems and market share arrangements. Most of these proposals are not in line with present policy and emphasis on freer trade and letting comparative advantage and market forces govern the flow of commodities.

The United States is in the process of revising agricultural programs so that decision making will be increasingly market oriented rather than government directed. The way to expand international trade to the benefit of all concerned is to liberalize tariffs and quotas and do away with other institutionally imposed impediments to free trade, including export subsidies and variable levies and re-establish the MFN principle.

The present draft proposal by the Director General of FAO for an International Undertaking on World Food Security will come before the FAO Conference November 10-29, 1973 for consideration.

This is a proposal for ensuring a minimum level of world security against serious food shortages and for international action to assure adequate basic stocks. Unlike other previous FAO proposals for grain reserves the World Food Security Proposal of the Director General provides a framework for national stock policies and international consultation. Governments would report on available national stock levels and consult together on adequacy of world stocks. Each country would decide on its own desirable minimum stock level.

1 "Developing countries" is defined as including nations in Latin America, the Near East and Africa, Asia and the Far East, and excluding nations with developed market economies, such as the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Western Europe, and nations with centrally planned economies, such the the USSR and Eastern Europe. (From publications of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.)

27-781-74- -7

Joint FAO/IWC machinery for international consultation would require a reliable and comprehensive food information service and the cooperation of all nations. A regular flow of data would include:

(1) National stock levels, stockholding programs, stock policies and objectives

(2) Current crop conditions and prospects for coming harvest

(3) Current and prospective export availabilities and import requirements for cereals, including food aid.

Special assistance to developing countries would continue to be bilateral food * aid programs and the World Food Program for meeting unforeseen shortages and emergency situations.

The world food security policy should be an element of international agricultural adjustment which should not overshadow the importance of; (1) price adjustments, (2) policies of full employment and economic development, (3) less restrictive trade policies and (4) discouragement of uneconomic production, as a basic means of dealing with the problems of surpluses.

At present the United States supports in principal the development of national stock policies by countries and favors continuing international consultation utilizing the established machinery of FAO/IWC.

Question 36. What is the present attitude of the United States Government and fertilizer companies toward the FAO fertilizer Program?

The United States Government has supported the FAO Fertilizer Program from the beginning and continues to do so. The FAO Secretariat and some countries have felt that the U.S. should have been making a direct financial contribution over and above that contributed to the regular budget of the Organization. It has been estimated, and pointed out to the last meeting of the Ad Hoc Fertilizer Committee, that through AID and TVA the United States is contributing indirectly about $90,000 a year to the Program. TVA, for example, making use of its computers, puts out the statistics on the world fertilizer situation. AID in cooperation with FAO and TVA has now completed studies in more than 30 countries on fertilizer marketing and credit situation and reports have been issued on most of them.

The fertilizer industry in the United States has made a financial contribution to the FAO Fertilizer Program each year and continues to do so. Because of this, and from conversations with industry representatives, it can be assumed there is general support for the Program by United States fertilizer companies.

Question 37. Should the U.S. government be prepared to contribute toward a fund to buy surplus grain from developing countries for use as international food reserves?

The U.S. policy is for farmers (grain producers) and the private grain trade to hold the reserve stocks of grain. The U.S. Government does not plan to be the owner of this nation's food stocks nor contribute funds to purchase grain for an international food reserve.

We look forward to working with other member countries of FAO in a broader sharing of responsibility in meeting the world's food needs.

The long history of failures in international commodity agreements convinces us that free and open markets are the best and most realistic way to assure an equitable sharing of available grain supplies, including adequate world food stocks as well as disposal of excessive surpluses should they arrive.

The U.S. will continue to provide assistance to developing countries for research on the development of storage facilities suitable for their climatical and economic conditions. The U.S. will continue, in close collaboration with international and regional development agencies, to train technicians from developing countries on the broad aspects of grain storage, grain drying and grain marketing.

Further, the United States encourages an examination by international development banks of projects to assist in financing of increased storage facilities in the food importing countries to better enable these deficit countries to store and maintain more adequate reserves within their own boundaries.

The U.S. has been and will continue to be a dependable source of supplies and a responsible partner in the world wide effort to produce and distribute foods for all.

We are prepared to collaborate with the FAO and other organizations to assist developing countries to carry out reviews of their overall food policies and to point out alternative courses which they might follow.

Question 38. Would it be feasible to think of an international clearinghouse to operate as a middle station between the surplus countries and deficiency countries and to take care of the holding and storage of food, to try to avoid international disruption of markets, to provide price analyses, to apply certain international tests, year to year, to predict food needs of developing countries and to oversee the distribution of foods to the countries of shortage and to identify internal problems of distribution?

Answer. An international clearinghouse for food is one of many ideas that have been suggested for dealing with world food shortages. Since the mid-1940's there have been as many as eight proposals on assuring international food reserves that have been considered by the Food and Agricu 'ture Organization (FAO), including the establishment of an international commodity clearinghouse. However, none of these proposals have been adopted. A main reason for their failure seems to be that countries are generally unwilling to emmit the management of their food supplies to an international authority. There are also complex problems which are difficult to resolve in coming to agreement among countries on how such a system would operate, and secondly making the system work to meet stated objectives when international controls are cumbersome and difficult to enforce. Recognizing the problems inherent in an international commodity clearinghouse, FAO has recently proposed a new initiative for international action to assure an adequate world food supply. This proposal is largly voluntary with little or no distasteful requirements or enforcement provisions. The major aim of the FAO proposal is for a minimum level of world food security that could be met simply through a limited degree of coordination of national stock policies. The proposal has four main elements: (1) recognition by governments of a common responsibility to assure through national stockholding the availability of sufficient grain supplies to avoid acute shortages, (2) regular inter-governmental consultations to review the world's food situation and recommend suitable action if needed, (3) formulation and recommendation of grain reserve policies to national governments, and (4) an international program of assistance for developing countries which wish to maintain a minimum national food reserve. The FAO proposal also envisages an international clearinghouse of information on the world food situation and the adequacy of food stocks, which will help to reduce some of the uncertainty surrounding the situation.

If agreed upon and properly implemented, the FAO proposal could provide a feasible solution to avoiding future acute food shortages and at the same time not overburdening a few national governments with the cost of holding reserves for the whole world.

Question 39. How could international financial and monetary resources such as SDR's be used to avoid waiting for a crisis actually to occur, so that when developing countries have a shortfall of food they can act promptly to draw on such monetary resources without waiting for a catastrophe to seek international assistance?

Answer. Numerous schemes exist for expanding the developing countries international reserves. Without commenting on the feasibility of such schemes or the overall priorities for attaining other objectives, it is impractical to expect an individual developing country to hold additional reserves strictly to finance emergency food imports. Excess reserves represent real resources a country could use for its development program. Rather than waste this resource, most developing countries hold the minimum level of reserves-usually a sum equivalent to a few months imports-needed to finance seasonal imbalances between imports and exports and other international financial transactions.

One possible approach to the problem is an expansion of the International Monetary Fund's compensatory financing scheme. The existing program provides international credits to a developing country whose export receipts temporarily fall below the usual level. The compensation is designed to allow such countries to maintain normal imports, so that development programs are not seriously disrupted. The program could be expanded to provide foreign credits to a country that temporarily had to increase food imports beyond normal levels.

COVER LETTER AND RESPONSE FROM THE AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY CHAIRMAN DIGGS

Hon. CHARLES C. DIGGS, Jr.,

DEPARTMENT OF STATE,

AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
Washington, D.C., December 21, 1974.

Chairman, Subcommittee on Africa, Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of
Representatives, Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN DIGGS: The Department of Agriculture requested the Agency for International Development to prepare replies to questions 11, 12, 27, 28, 29, 33 and 34 in your recent letter concerning "World Food Security". The Agency's replies to these questions are attached.

Sincerely yours,

MATTHEW J. HARVEY,

Assistant Administrator for Legislative Affairs.

Question 11. What amount of foreign assistance designated to the development of agriculture/agricultural programs in the developing nations by industrial nations? Please include in your listing of countries information on which organizations/programs the funds are distributed to the developing country.

Response. We have attempted to compile the information requested but unfortunately we can find no source where the information is put together in that format. The compilation of the data requested would require substantial expenditure of A.I.D. personnel time and therefore suggest the use of other sources for this information.

Question 12. What kind of agricultural programs are established in the developing countries receiving foreign assistance from the developed countries? (Please be specific, enumerating the countries involved and the principal administrators of the programs.)

Response. As noted in reply to Question 11 above, the compilation of this data is not put together in this format, therefore, suggest the use of other sources such as World Bank, FAO, etc.

Question 27. Can it be fairly said that the present problems in the Sahel exist only because of problems of underdevelopment-that is lack of regional market infra-structure-and is that underdevelopment a function of colonial and post-colonial dependence on "aid-givers". Please discuss comprehensively.

Response. Underdevelopment and difficulties inherent in developing strong governments during the first years of independence can complicate crisis situations, but the current problems in the Sahel stem primarily from ecological and climatic conditions that have existed for years and have been heightened by nearly five years of drought. Resolution of the Sahel situation extends beyond national boundaries and any solution must reinforce the ecological links that already exist between the Sahel and the Sudan.

More efficient production techniques must be applied to livestock and food crops since the most crucial problem relates to a deficit in food production. Once increased food production is achieved a regional marketing structure to achieve a better distribution of food would be a major contribution to long-range development. However, the lack of a regional market is not presently the priority problem.

The immediate problem is to restore livestock, especially the breeding stock, by proper feeding and health care, and removal of the tsetse fly in some areas. Over-grazing has led to degradation of the land. The lack of pasturage may be a more serious problem than lack of water.