of a favourable commercial balance, a thoufand combinations and events which have no relation to that balance, draw money from abroad or send it there; and in the general, continued and various motions of commerce, the tables of exportation and importation, according to which the fign of a favourable or unfavourable balance is regulated, are too uncertain and defective for the purpose, as well as for forming a judgment of the quantities of coin or riches of a Nation *.

Let

* I will give a ftriking example of the deficiency of these calculations, of the estimation of a balance of trade and of the quantity of money. This example will prove that political calculators neglect, or are ignorant of foreign events which overturn their calculations.

M. Neckar wished to inform himfelf (Chap. IX. Vol. 3d, Treaty of Administration of Finance) what was the fum brought to and preferved in Europe from 1763 to 1777. He eftimares it at one thoufand eight hundred and fifty millions of livres, according to the regifter of Lisbon and Cadiz, comprehending that even which entered by contraband, and he values at 300 millions of livres, that which went out of Europe during the fame interval.

It will only be neceffary to quote two or three authenticated facts, to prove the infufficiency of this calculation founded upon the regifters of Custom-houses.

In ftating the fum of money entered into Europe, it does not appear that M. Neckar takes account of the gold and filver, which the conquest and poffeffion of Bengal by the English, and their establishments in the Eaft Indies, have caufed to pafs into this quarter of the world. But according to the calculation of the fecret committee appointed by the Parliament of England, to examine the state of English poffeffions in India, the fums drawn from Bengal from 1757

Let the tables for comparing the exportation and importation of raw materials, and of manufactured articles be encreased to what degree they may; let the greatest care and fidelity be employed to render

them

to 1771 amount to 751,500,000 livres. To what will it amount, if there be added to it those drawn from the Carnatic and from Oude, of which the Nabobs have the fhadow only of the property, from the revenue of the northern Circars, from the theft committed on the Emperor of Mogul, from 1771 to the prefent day, of his twenty fix millions, from the perpetual increase of territories and revenues, from the fale måde in 1773 of the Rohillas to the Nabob of Oude, which produced to the English upwards of fifty millions.

Finally, what will be the amount, if there be added to it the enormous fums exported from the Indies by individuals, who have there enriched themselves? The fortune of Lord Clive was beyond calculation, that of Mr. Haftings, against whom a profecution is now carrying on, is calculated at thirty or forty millions. Another Governor has, according to feveral well, founded reports, recently paid upwards of two millions of livres to filence his accufers. It is true that a part of these immenfe riches have been employed to defray the expences incurred by the English in guarding their poffeffions in India; that a more confiderable one has been fent into Europe under the form of merchandise; but it cannot be denied that a third part has been brought in gold and filver to our Continent. What is the amount of it? This is impoffible to ftate. But whatever it may be, it renders the calculation of Mr Neckar doubtful. Let the in exhauftible riches of the Indies be judged of by one fact, and confequently the immenfe fource from which the Europeans have drawn them, and by another confequence, the money which must have come into Europe. Nadir Schah who conquered Delly in 1740, took from

India

• The detail of this calculation is given in The Description of the Indies Vol. I. page 249. It is neceffary to take notice here of an error crept into that work, which is, that the fum total is there given in pounds fterling, instead of livres tournois.

£ See Mackintosh's Voyage to the Eaft Indies Vol. I. page 340.

them perfect, the refult will never be more certain or decifive; for as long as prohibitory laws, which are always accompanied by illicit commerce, fhall exift, it will be impoffible to know and state exactly what comes in and goes out; and if there be a country where

e

India about forty millions Sterling. This money was circulated in Perfia, and as that unhappy state, is torn by defpotifin and continual wars, produces but little, manufactures nothing, and is confequently debtor to exterior Commerce, which comes almost entirely into Europe, it follows that two thirds of the fums stolen from India by the freebooter Nadir, have paffed over to the fame quarter. These events, unnoticed by political calculators, have certainly had great and univerfal influence upon the fluctuation and circulation of money. That which makes it fuppofed that no metals come from India, is the opinion that their importation is difadvantageous. But have the freebooters who have pillaged that country for the last thirty years, calculated this difadvantage? They ftrive to fecure their thefts and do not fpeculate like merchants: bulky merchandise would betray them.

With refpect to the ftated fums of money which pafs from Europe to India, there is the fame defect in the calculations of Mr. Neckar. He takes no notice of the events which obliged the Enligh to. remit confiderable fums to India: for inftance, the two wars against the Marrattas were prodigiously expenfive, that against Hyder Ally in 1769 was not lefs fo. A fingle conflagration at Calcutta coft nearly twenty four millions of livres, which it was neceflary to replace, yet thefe fums are far from balancing thofe which are exported from India.

This is a ftrong objection made by the adverfaries of Lord Shef field, to which his Lordfhip has but weakly replied.

Nothing can be more impofing than the tables of importation and exportation, and of the balance of trade in Great Britain, published by

See Mackintosh's Voyages, Vol. I. page 341.

Sir

• See Mr. Capper's Voyage, at the end of that of Mackintosh, Vol. II. page 454.

L

5

*

where no fuch laws exift, are exact registers of the exports and imports to be found in it? And if they were, would it not be a constraint which, the private interefts of merchants would frequently oblige them to avoid?

Moreover does it appear that, in these general balances, which are supposed to be paid in money, notice is taken of the operation of bankers, foreign government, and those who go abroad, in exporting the public fpecie. Knowledge is deceitful which is acquired from fuch confequences,

Sir Charles Whitworth. Yet fee with what facility the Count de Mirabeau reduces to twenty millions of livres tournois, the ninety millions which Sir Charles Whitworth estimates to be the annual balance of English Commerce; and truft after this to Custom-house calculations. See page 371. Confiderations on the Order of Cincis.-London Edit.

natus.

* Such a country does exift. There are many States among the new Republics of America, which register veffels as they enter because, duties are paid on importation; but there are none on exportation.

+ It is very probable there are a number of particular caufes which infenfibly diminish the quantity of coin in those nations which have the balance of trade conftantly in their favour. Were no fuch caufes to exift, the confequence will be that such nations would be obliged to bury their gold and filver in the earth, to prevent its falling into difufe; yet neither of thefe cafes happen. Therefore money neceffarily paffes from fuch Countries to others.

M. Cafaux has proved this to be true, with respect to England, in his Confiderations upon the Mechanism of Society. He there explains, that if the calculations of Sir Charles Whitworth be true, England ought to poffefs at this moment about four hundred thoufand millions of livres in gold and filver, as the fole balance of her

commerce

But how appreciate how eftimate the encrease of the riches and commerce of a nation?-By its population. If this fenfibly augments, if ease and the conveniencies of life become more general, if the causes of indigence in an increafing people be feen to diminish, or are confined to inability to to work, occafioned by accidental illneffes, it is evident, that the revenues of that nation exceed its expences, and that the balance of trade is in its favour; for if the value of its exportation were inferior to that of its importation, a confiderable debt and impoverishment would foon be the confequences and impoverishment falls immediately upon population. It is therefore by rational and well composed tables upon this fubject only, that a minister of found judgment, profound and extended in his plans, will be prevailed upon to govern himself. It is by them he will judge of the encrease

commerce from 1700 to 1775. Yet it is certain that the is far from having that enormous fum. She has not even a fum in proportion to her population and contingencies. She fupplies that deficiency

by an immenfe circulation of her bank-paper.

The fimilarity of fome ideas contained in this work upon the baance of trade, with those of M. Cafaux, obliges us to declare, that his work published in London in 1785, and but little diftributed in France, came not to our hands before ours was finished and half printed. A particular circumftance has given us occafion to quote it, which we do do with pleasure, to do justice to the labours of this political writer, who perhaps, wants nothing but clearness and notoriety, to be esteemed as he ought to be. We are nevertheless far from adopting fome of his opinions which appear to us erroneous, fuch as thofe upon loans, reimbursements &c.

and