restrict the birth rate, whether they live in urban or in rural districts. The older immigrants with higher standards have the smallest birth rates of the foreign born, while the children of immigrants, as they begin to conform to American standards, show the same tendency as the native Americans to restrict the birth rate. And in general the figures show that where competition is most severe the birth rate is most restricted.

The effect of higher standards of living and increased competition on the natural increase of population has long been recognized; and Francis Walker first advanced the theory that immigration did not add to the total population of the country, but merely served to substitute the foreign stock for the native. While Walker's theory contains much truth, it may require some modification or explanation. The effect of the racial factor in immigration is perhaps not so direct as his theory would imply, and the psychological influence may be overemphasized. The chief restriction upon population arises out of the struggles connected with increasing numbers; and the part played by immigration is to increase numbers and to intensify competition. That a declining birth rate is not traceable to immigration alone is evident from the decline in other countries where the conditions are not complicated by foreign immigration. The reason that immigration is sometimes spoken of as the cause of the slow increase of the native stock is that, in a country with the territory and resources of the United States, a decline in the rate of natural increase of the population would not be expected so soon; and immigration is therefore thought to be the factor which has hastened the decline. The fact would be difficult to prove by statistics, because a decline in the fecundity of the native population would be expected sooner or later under any circumstances. And no one can say when the decline would have started, or how extensive it would have been had the immigration since 1850 not been so large as to become a complicating population factor.

However, Professor Ellwood gives an interesting table showing the decline in the natural increase of the population of the United States coincident with the increase by immigration. It will be seen from this table that the rate of increase of the total

population has declined, especially since 1860, the decline in that decade being for the most part attributable to the Civil War. Nevertheless the extensive immigration of the late forties and of the fifties is thought to have had an effect. The immediate results of this immigration upon the rate of increase of the total population, which had gradually fallen from 36% to 32%, was to raise it to 35%, but the increase by births at the same time fell off. The chief point of this table is to indicate the rapid decline in the natural increase in the population in the face of heavy immigration. But there is also a slight evidence of fluctuations in the rate of natural increase of the population following fluctuations in the rate of immigration. The figures for the increase by immigration are based on arrivals, without allowance for departures or deaths, and therefore they exag

Year

By Birth
Per cent

1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910

TABLE XVI 1
Total Increase By Immigration
Per cent

Per cent
35.70
36.38
34.07
33.55
32.67

4.66
35.87

10.04 35.58

II.12 22.63

7.25 30.08

7.29 24.86

10.40 20.73

5.86 21.02

11.57

28.01 25.83 24-46 15.38 22.79 15.40 14.87 9.45

gerate the influence of immigration. The real point of significance, which is intensity of competition, could not easily be indicated by statistics of immigration. These figures therefore must be taken to represent the general trend of changes in the population rather than an accurate measure of the economic influences at work.

Another indication of the effects of immigration is to be found in the fact that in the southern states, where immigration has been negligible, the rate of natural increase of the popula

1 Elwood, Sociology and Modern Social Problems, p. 225.

tion has shown no such decline as it has in the northern states. This fact is of significance; but here again the conclusion is uncertain, because the economic conditions are so different in the two sections of the country.

The statistical evidence available, though incomplete, would at least support the theory that immigration was a factor in lowering the rate of increase of the native stock. While the degree of influence of this factor cannot be measured exactly, it seems probable that, while immigration adds to the population in the newer sections of the country, it does not increase it perceptibly in the older more thickly populated districts. Immigration doubtless adds less and less to total population as competition and class distinctions become stronger. Just when additions from immigration disappear, or become a minus quantity, as some writers maintain they do, depends upon the standards of living maintained as well as upon economic opportunities. It is possible that immigration added something, though a diminishing amount, to the population of the East taken as a whole before the industrial changes of the seventies or eighties; but it is doubtful if it has added anything since then.

This tendency of immigration to substitute a lower class for an upper through differences in the birth rate is a serious danger to any society. Nothing need be said concerning the substitution of one race for another, which is an element also involved, for the relative value of different races and their adaptability to free institutions is a matter of opinion, often a matter of prejudice; but the total loss resulting from the continual displacement of an upper class by a lower should be emphasized. Although the total number of those constituting the middle class in this country may not be declining even relatively, the old native middle class is disappearing and the present middle class is retaining its relative position only through additions from below. This means that instead of starting the new generation from the middle class, with all the advantages which that class has to offer, society laboriously educates some members of the lowest class up to the standards and efficiency of the middle class, only to have these new members disappear in turn through competition with a lower class which is ever being renewed from without. This process may go on indefinitely unless changing social conditions make it more and more difficult for members of the lowest class to rise, and under those circumstances the middle class would probably decline absolutely. Sacrificing the middle class to the lowest class is like sacrificing young manhood to childhood. A child has to be developed before it can reach its highest efficiency, and what that efficiency may prove to be is quite uncertain.

When immigrants belong to the middle class. Immigration of the middle class is the least common type, for ordinarily a society old enough to have strongly defined class distinctions loses members of its middle class by emigration to newer parts of its own country, if not to other countries, instead of receiving additions to its own by immigration. Nevertheless the United States is receiving some immigrants into the large cities who have the same general standards as the native middle class. The result of such immigration is to increase directly the economic struggle of the middle class with the result on the birth rate which has just been outlined. But in this case, unlike the preceding, there is an advantage in that the increased struggle will tend to result in the survival of the most competent. When persons of the same general standards of living compete within a particular district, those who are able most easily to maintain their standards can marry earlier and support a larger family; while those who maintain their standards with difficulty must defer marriage and have fewer children. If competition is between different classes, however, the inferior class will support larger families on a lower plane of living. To ensure the survival of the fittest, competition must be upon the same general plane; if competition is between individuals or classes of unequal standards of living, the lowest standard will prevail.

Summary. To sum up, it may be said as a general rule that, where population is sparse and class distinctions are not already clearly drawn, immigration adds to the population until competition becomes strong, when the natural increase of the population will be checked. Here the advantage will lie with the most competent, and selection will be favorable. If class distinctions are well marked, the upper class is likely to suffer, whether it is native or foreign. If immigrants have a low standard of living their competition will render insecure the position of those of a higher standard who are affected by such competition, and the result will be a lowering of the plane of living for some, and a checking of the rate of reproduction for others. In this case selection will be adverse.

Effects of Emigration. The effects of strong movements of population upon the emigrating country are the reverse of the effects upon the immigrating country. The emigrants may leave sparsely settled districts, usually agricultural communities, or they may leave thickly settled districts; but the point of significance in ascertaining the effects of emigration is not whether the district is rural or urban, but whether or not it is over-populated. Rural districts as well as cities may be overpopulated in the sense that they offer little opportunity for the population to support itself on the customary plane of living. Now it might seem as though emigration would take place only from over-populated districts, but such is not the case. Individual emigrants often can and do better themselves by leaving districts which cannot be classed as over-populated.

When emigration is from an under-populated district, it results in a loss to the total population; and it also makes conditions harder instead of easier for those who are left behind; because, so long as a given environment still offers favorable opportunity, larger numbers make life easier through the advantages to be gained from more extended coöperation. An example of a decrease in a population is to be found in the case of the Slovaks who are for the most part an agricultural people. They showed an absolute decrease between 1900 and 1910 from the excessive emigration of that decade, though the Magyars showed a gain.

When emigration is from a densely populated region the results are more complicated. The immediate effect is to lessen the intensity of competition there with two possible results. Population may increase more rapidly until the gap left by