a certain extent and imperfectly, the place of law, one of whose main functions (as has been already shown) is to coerce the volition, and to limit the alternatives of action presented to the free agent, and, consequently, to enable the rest of the world to form a better judgment of his probable conduct. On the other hand, when men whose conduct is not under the influence of reason are invested with political power, those with whom they have to deal, and those who are subject to their government, are left in a state of utter uncertainty as to what they may expect. Where, again, the great body of any community are guided by violent and irrational counsels, and follow the advice of unwise leaders, it is impossible for a government to anticipate how any measure, however beneficial in its tendency, and however well meant by its authors, may be received.

measures

8 2 The dealings of the politician are with men, but his are not influenced exclusively by human volition— they are likewise influenced by the operations of nature; and hence arises another class of conditions, to which all his practical problems are subject. Communities of men live under the dominion of natural laws, which they can to a certain extent predetermine, and whose effects they can likewise, within certain limits, modify and regulate according to their wants. Many of these laws are, however, still undiscovered, and some appear to be beyond our powers of discovery, while many of the manifestations of physical phenomena are beyond our control. The physical sciences and arts are all in a more or less imperfect state, great as is the progress which many of them have made, and admirable as are the triumphs which the reason of man, working with his frail diminutive body and feeble muscular powers, has achieved over the world which he inhabits. Of the physical sciences, the most perfect is astronomy; and by means of the laws which theory has determined for the motions of the solar system, the practical astronomer can calculate their places at any future time. Hence, he can lay down rules for the measurement of time, and can frame almanacs, by which the future management of political, as well as all other human

affairs, is materially assisted. the practical operations of governments, both civil and military, were impeded by the impossibility of measuring future time. (3) Other inventions in the physical sciences and arts have facilitated the action of governments, especially in the transport of men and letters, in the operations of war, both military and naval, and in the diffusion and perpetuation of writings by typography. But some of the sciences, and the corresponding arts, relating to matters which deeply affect the social condition of man, are still in a very imperfect state. The laws of meteorology are as yet incompletely known,(') and yet the influence of meteorological agents upon the life of man is far more direct, frequent, and searching, than the influence of astronomical causes. The failure or success of the products of the earth depends, to a great extent, on meteorological agents, the operation of which cannot be predicted; (5) and on the failure or success of the products of the earth depend scarcity and plenty, commercial and economical convulsions, popular content or discontent, and other social phenomena with which the politician has to deal. Meteorological causes likewise influence navigation, military operations, and the course, duration, and intensity of epidemic diseases, in men, animals, and plants, all of which effects, although they can neither be anticipated nor prevented, create subjects for the attention of the politician, and interfere, in a thousand different ways, with the operation of laws, and the measures of a govern

Before almanacs were constructed,

(3) According to Xen. Mem. iv. 7, § 4, Socrates advised young men to learn so much of astronomy as would enable them, on travels by sea and land, and in the camp, to know the time of the night and other divisions of time. Socrates also speaks of the utility of astronomy, not only for agriculture and navigation, but also for military purposes, in Plat. Rep. vii. 9, p. 527: see above, p. 341, note 16. The study of astronomy is enjoined to freemen in Plat. Leg. vii. 20, p. 817; 22, p. 821-2. began to be used soon after the invention of printing. The Connoissance des Tems commenced in 1698; the Nautical Almanac in 1767. The term almanac is derived from a Persian or Arabic word, signifying a newyear's gift.-Grotefend in Ersch und Grubers Encyclopedie, in v.

(4) See above, ch. xxiv. § 7.

Almanacs

(5) See Whittle's Essay on the Climate of the British Islands, in its Effect on Cultivation,' Journal of the Royal Agricultural Society, vol. xi. p. 1.

ment. For example, the potato disease in the United Kingdom, beginning from the year 1845, which appears to have originated in some pervading atmospheric cause, exercised the most important and direct influence upon the commercial policy of the country, and led to changes which have determined the state of political parties since that time. Pestilences, again, such as that at Athens during the Peloponnesian war, the plague of Justinian's time, and the plagues of Florence, Milan, Marseilles, and other towns at later periods, have for a time disorganized society, and deranged all the functions of civil government: all these pestilences have been referred to some constitution of the air, or other occult meteorological agency.(") The Spanish armada was

dissipated by a storm.(7) The ruin of the French army in its retreat from Russia, in 1812, was accelerated by an earlier and severer winter than had been anticipated. All those physical causes which the language of our law classifies together as the acts of God,' that is to say, phenomena of which we cannot determine the physical sequence with sufficient accuracy to enable us to predict their occurrence, influence the measures of the politician in a manner which he could not anticipate. To these may be added, the influence exercised upon political acts by the

(6) See Dr. Holland's Medical Notes and Reflections: ch. 27, 'On the Influence of Weather in relation to Disease.'

(7) Afflavit Deus, et dissipantur:' this legend on a coin marks the unexpected nature of the event. Where any physical event occurs according to some law which we can detect, so that we are able to predict its occurrence (for instance, the alternation of the seasons, or the succession of day and night), we rarely attribute it to a divine agency, although there is as much reason for assigning it to a First Cause as the former class of phenomena. The following just strictures upon the delusion which finds a worthier subject of admiration in the extraordinary than in the ordinary operations of nature are made by Seneca: Sol spectatorem, nisi quum deficit, non habet. Nemo observat lunam, nisi laborantem. Tune urbes conclamant, tunc pro se quisque superstitione vanâ trepidat. Quanto illa majora sunt, quod sol totidem, ut ita dicam, gradus, quot dies habet, et annum circuitu suo claudit: quod a solstitio ad minuendos dies vertitur, quod a solstitio statum inclinat, et dat spatium noctibus: quod sidera abscondit: quod terras, quum tanto major sit illis, non urit, sed calorem suum intensionibus ac remissionibus temperando fovet: quod lunam nunquam implet, nisi adversam sibi, nec obscurat. Hæc tamen non annotamus, quamdiu ordo servatur. Si quid turbatum est, aut præter consuetudinem emicuit, spectamus, interrogamus, ostendimus. Adeo naturale est magis nova, quam magna, mirari.-Natur. Quæst. vii. 1.

imperfections in the art of the engineer, and of the other persons exercising the constructive and useful arts-imperfections which often cause them to mislead the practical politician by erroneous predictions, and promises which cannot be performed.

§ 3 Partly from the nature of the human will, and partly from the operation of incalculable physical causes, every practical political problem contains certain elements which are indeterminate, and which must be set down to the account of chance. Some of the elements can be predetermined-can be brought under the operation of the agent's design or intention, and can be subjected to his control; over the others he can exercise no influence.

In

The mutual action of political life is often likened to a game: we hear of the game of politics, and of moves being made on the political board. Practical politics, however, do not so much resemble a game of chess as a game of whist. chess, the position of the pieces at the beginning of the game is precisely similar for both the contending parties, and every move is made by the deliberate choice of the players. The result, therefore, depends exclusively on their comparative skill; chance is altogether excluded. In whist, on the other hand, the distribution of the cards depends upon chance; that is to say, it depends upon circumstances not within the control of any of the players; but with the cards so casually dealt out, each player plays according to his free choice. The result, therefore, depends partly upon chance, or luck, as it is called, and partly upon skill. This is exactly analogous to the state of things in politics. A large number of circumstances upon which the practical politician has to act are beyond his control-they are, like a hand at cards, dealt out to him by a power which he cannot regulate. But he can guide those circumstances which are within his power, and the ultimate result will depend, partly upon the character of the circumstances upon which he has to act, and partly upon the wisdom, skill, and prudence with which he conducts himself in reference to them. If the circumstances are very adverse, the utmost skill may be unavailing to produce a successful result.

If they be very prosperous, he may be successful with a moderate amount of good management. If the circumstances should be unfavourable, good management will only meet with chequered success, and will be no effectual security against occasional reverses though it will be successful in the long run, and taking together both favourable and unfavourable circumstances; whereas in a game of chess superior skill is invariably triumphant, which never happens in real life.

§ 4 Furthermore, the practical politician must bear in mind, that the questions which he has to solve rarely present an absolutely right and an absolutely wrong course: he is seldom in the position of Hercules in the celebrated apologue, chusing between the two roads, one of which leads to virtue and the other to vice. He is usually called upon to chuse, not between black and white, but between two intermediate shades of colour, one somewhat darker than the other. He has to select between alternative courses, each of which has certain advantages and disadvantages. He has to enumerate and weigh these for each, to compare the several results together, and to strike the balance in favour of one. In general, this process consists in the choice of means to a given end, or of hypothetical causes tending to produce a given effect. The comparison of these several means or causes with one another, and the estimate of their tendency to bring about the proposed end, together with their influence in producing various incidental effects, is often an intricate process; but without it, the practical problem cannot be effectually solved.

It may appear probable that several of the alternative courses proposed will lead to the desired end; the problem then is, to determine which of them will lead to it most easily and expeditiously. The practical man often finds himself in the situation of a person who has to undertake a journey to a distant country, and to whom different ways of travelling are suggested: one way is more rapid and direct, but perhaps more expensive; one way may be more healthy, but less secure; another may be less dangerous, but more unhealthy; one may entail more travelling