over which the comparison is made. However, the following suggestions are worthy of note:

1. When relative numbers are under consideration, the volume of migration should be compared with the change in the number employed.

2. The number of incoming immigrants is sufficiently large, even in depression periods, to suggest that, even though there may be extensive emigration in the same period, the adjustment of the recent immigrant to industry is an ever-present and serious problem. 3. The cumulative volume of net immigration is seldom equal in numbers to the concurrent change in employment when periods as short as three months are considered, but in some instances is contrary in direction,—that is, an increase in unemployment is accompanied by an excess of immigrants over emigrants (Chart 22, Fig. A).

4. When cumulated over long periods, as for twelve months (Chart 20) or during the duration of a depression (Charts 21 and 22, Fig. B), it was found that only in the severe depression of 1908, and then for a brief time only, was there an excess of departures; and that in many parts of such periods there was a substantial excess of arriving over departing aliens, with a probable aggravation of the unemployment situation. The burden of such unemployment probably falls in part on the newly-arrived immigrants and in part on resident workers who are replaced by immigrants willing to work for lower wages.

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CHAPTER VI

THE WAR AND POST-WAR PERIOD

The principal emphasis in this study has been placed, for somewhat obvious reasons, upon the years preceding the Great War. The pre-war period is particularly significant for our purpose because at that time, on this side of the Atlantic at least, there were fewer legal or unusual barriers to the free flow of migration in accordance with the pull of economic motives.

On the other hand, the decade just past is not to be entirely neglected. Despite the restraint and distortion due to unusual political conditions and restrictive legislation, to a considerable extent it is possible to clear away the results of such extraneous influences, and to throw still further light on the influence upon migration of cyclical variations and other economic phenomena.

THE WAR PERIOD: 1914-1918

For our purpose, the years from the outbreak of the war to the conclusion of the armistice are relatively inconsequential. Ordinary migratory movements were hindered by the hazards of ocean travel, the restraints placed upon their nationals by the belligerent countries, and similar obstacles to the normal movement of migrants.

The net result of these influences is shown in Table 29 giving the number of alien arrivals, alien departures, and the net alien movement in the war period and in a few years immediately preceding and succeeding the war.

It is evident that even before our entry into the war, the number of arrivals had shrunk to less than a third of the 1913, or peak year, total, and reached a still lower ebb in 1917 and 1918. Departures also decreased during the war, but, after the armistice, recovered more quickly than arrivals, and in 1919 the number of alien departures was within a few thousand of the number of arrivals. In fact, if we consider male aliens only, we find that the departures exceeded the arrivals by 24,045 in 1915 and by 61,090 in 1919. We must not conclude that there were no migratory movements

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actuated by economic motives in this period. Prior to our entry into the war, a considerable fraction of the usual flow continued from neutral countries, and even from the allied countries; and the number of "immigrants" recorded from British North America increased, exceeding one hundred thousand in each of the fiscal years 1915-16, and 1916-17. The numbers from Mexico also increased, particularly if we include those admitted during and immediately following the war period by special provision waiving the literacy test and admitting for temporary conditional sojourn to help meet the demand for labor.

TABLE 29.-EFFECT OF THE WAR UPON ALIEN MIGRATION®
Thousands of Persons

•Compiled from the publications of the United States Bureau of Immigration. Both permanent and temporary migrants are included.

Apparent discrepancies of one thousand in this column compared with the difference of the first two columns is due to the fact that the differences were computed from the original data before reduction to thousands.

THE POST-WAR PERIOD

The history of migration subsequent to the armistice presents many peculiar features. Over the greater part of the period unusual forces were operating to distort fluctuations in migration from their characteristic pre-war types.

In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1919, the greater part of emigration was to Canada, Mexico, Italy, and Greece, but emigration to Europe trebled in the following immigration year, ending June 30, 1920.

On the return of transportation to something akin to normal conditions, thousands of foreign-born residents of the United States who had been forced by war conditions to postpone a trip to their former home sailed for Europe. Among these were many returning because of changed political conditions. For example, in the three fiscal years 1920, 1921, and 1922, the emigrant aliens destined to reconstituted Poland numbered over 90,000, most of them of the Polish race.

Obviously, the emigration movements of the early post-war period, at least, need close analysis for other influences before the role played by economic conditions in this country can be ascertained.

Tardy Recovery of Immigration.

Immigration, likewise, was somewhat slow to recover, not quite reaching the two hundred and fifty thousand mark in 1919 (calendar year). The incoming movement, however, exhibited a growing momentum and reached a total of over seven hundred thousand in the calendar year 1920, not including nonimmigrants; and even in 1921, despite industrial depression, did not drop below 50,000 per month until June, 1921, by which time the three per centum quota law had gone into effect.

This law was apparently due, in part at least, to the fear that the volume of immigration in 1920 was but an indication of the growing momentum of a flood of immigrants which had been dammed up by war conditions and which now, spurred by actual or impending economic and political chaos in Europe, threatened to inundate this country with an unprecedented volume of aliens. Whatever the facts may be concerning the probability of the expected inundation, steps were taken in the law of May, 1921, which make the disentanglement of the economic trends in the subsequent period more than usually difficult. Because the quotas began to be available in July, and twenty per cent of the quota of any country could be admitted in a single month, the law has tended to concentrate the arrivals in the second half of the calendar year, thus creating a seasonal movement materially different from that characteristic of the pre-war period, and obscuring the effects of industrial prosperity and depression except for those countries which were obviously falling short of the quota or, like Canada and Mexico, were not subject to the law.

Male Immigration.

The course of male immigration during the war and post-war period and, for the sake of comparison, a few of the pre-war years, is shown in Chart 23. The curve in this chart represents the

CHART 23

MALE IMMIGRATION: 1910-1924.

Three-month moving average of index, adjusted for seasonal variation, with base 1910=100

changes in the numbers of those officially recorded as male immigrants, after adjustment has been made for the typical seasonal variation. The tendency for the quota law to concentrate the greater part of immigration in the months of July to November required the computation of a special seasonal correction for the years beginning in July, 1921, in order that the curve as shown might be free as far as possible from mere seasonal fluctuations.