failure of emigration to increase markedly in this depression period are probably the unsettled political and economic conditions in Europe and the anticipation of the effect of restrictive immigration laws in making it more difficult for those who left to return later.

CHART 31

SHOWING THE GREATER CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
EMIGRATION OF UNSKILLED LABORERS AS COMPARED

WITH EMIGRANTS HAVING NO OCCUPATION.

Three-month moving average of index numbers, corrected for seasonal variation, with 1913 monthly average=100

Computed from monthly statistics compiled by the United States Bureau of Immigration.

CHAPTER SUMMARY

Briefly summarized, the evidence submitted in this chapter indicates that with reference to the degree to which they are affected by cyclical movements in industry, male migration is more susceptible than female; the immigrant and emigrant are somewhat more susceptible than the nonimmigrant and nonemigrant groups; and the unskilled immigrant and emigrant respond to industrial conditions more readily than the skilled, professional, and "no occupation" groups.

Further indications of the relative responsiveness to industrial conditions of these several elements in migration will appear in the chapter on Seasonal Movements, and the discussion of the relative cyclical fluctuations of immigrants of various races and from various countries appears in the following chapter.

CHAPTER VIII

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRIES OF EMIGRATION

To be comprehensive, an analysis of the cyclical aspects of migration should throw light on the relative influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration and of immigration. Are fluctuations in the tide of migration due primarily to conditions at home or in the country of destination? Does the emigrant leave at a particular time because his status at home becomes intolerable or because the prospects in the "promised land" are unusually attractive?

If we had no better method of reaching a decision on this point, we should judge from a priori reasoning that the dominant cause of an unusual volume of emigration is most probably the attraction of unusual opportunities in the prospective home of the emigrant rather than the expelling force of unusually bad conditions in his former home. Particularly is this true of a common increase in emigration from several sources to a particular host country, especially if there is no similar increase in emigration from these same sources to other host countries.

An important consideration is that the passage money for many immigrants is furnished by relatives and friends in the United States and hence we should expect that increases in the immigration of this group would be particularly apt to show a close correspondence with prosperity in the United States.

On the other hand, we should expect that the time of arrival of immigrants who finance their own passage would be less influenced by conditions here. However, to the extent that business depressions in Europe and America occur at the same time and we shall presently see that they are to a large degree concurrent-distress in the country of emigration will be accompanied by unemployment and low wages in the country of intended residence. Not only will it be difficult for both assisted and self-financed immigrants to obtain funds for their passage, but also the news from abroad will be depressing and little calculated to encourage the would-be immigrants to tear loose from their moorings.

An exception must be made of instances of unusual disaster in the home country. In severe famine or political oppression, even a poor chance in a new environment may appear as a relative betterment. As a result of the severe potato famines in Ireland in the late forties of the last century, great numbers of the Irish population sought escape to the newer countries, even though the conditions of transportation were wretched and during the passage many perished in fever-infested ships. Likewise, when hundreds of thousands of Armenians were driven from their homes after the collapse of the Greek campaign in 1920, they would doubtless have gladly embarked for America in large numbers had not restrictions upon immigration to the United States been imposed in 1921.

But we are concerned here, not so much with exceptional national calamities, as with the ever-recurring succession of prosperity and depression which appears to be characteristic of the modern industrial organization. In this connection, the principal questions to be considered are: to what extent are cycles in economic conditions internationally concurrent, and are they of substantially equal violence; and to what extent do fluctuations in the flow of population from countries of emigration agree? Is there a substantial uniformity in the cyclical movements of emigration or does the peak of emigration from one country coincide with the trough of emigration from another? In the following paragraphs we first turn our attention to this latter question.

COMPARISON OF CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRINCIPAL STREAMS OF IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES AND OF EMIGRATION THEREFROM

Significance of Similarities.

Are the year-to-year changes in the volume of immigration to the United States substantially the same for all countries? Or is the change in total immigration merely the non-homogeneous composite of many more or less divergent tendencies causing increases in the emigration from some countries and decreases in that from others, with no clearly predominating tendency? Such a direct comparison of the fluctuations in the immigration to the United States from the leading emigrant countries is a logical first step in determining the relative influence of economic conditions in those countries. If the flow of immigration from all countries

evidences substantially the same fluctuations, a presumption is raised in favor of the theory that economic conditions in the United States are a predominating factor, particularly if business conditions in the several foreign countries are not closely parallel and these common migratory fluctuations accord well with industrial cycles in the United States.

On the other hand, if the more common phenomenon is a marked diversity in the cyclical fluctuations of the various national or racial elements in immigration, then a presumption is created in favor of the interpretation that conditions in the country of emigration are the dominant factor or that industrial prosperity and depression in the United States is itself a phenomenon so diversified in its influence upon employment that its effect is much greater upon immigration from certain countries than upon the general immigration movement.

Method of Analysis.

The facts concerning the relative fluctuations of immigration from the several countries are presented in two ways. In the first / place, they are shown by means of a table (Number 44) giving the number of immigrants from each of several countries and by charts (32 and 33) to facilitate the determination of whether changes in the number of immigrants in any given year are common to the several countries. Secondly, as a means of presenting the same facts in a way which stresses the divergence of the immigration from any one country from its usual proportion to the total immigration, a table and charts are given showing the fraction of the total immigration which is represented by the number of immigrants from each of the selected list of countries. (See Table 45 and Charts 34 and 35).

Immigration from Selected Countries.

An examination of the fluctuations in the number of immigrants from leading countries of emigration in the three decades prior to the Great War (Charts 32 and 33) furnishes reasonably conclusive evidence concerning the degree of similarity in such fluctuations. The countries included in this graphic comparison are England, Ireland, Germany, Sweden, Russia, Italy, and Austria-Hungary from 1880-to 1914; and Greece from 1891 to 1914.

In nine of the thirty-four years covered by Charts 32 and 33, the selected immigration movements either all show an increase or all

Numerical data in Table 44.

For a more complete discussion of the method of constructing the above chart, see footnote (b) to Chart 27, in Chapter VII.

Numerical data in Table 44.

For a more complete discussion of the method of constructing the above chart, see footnote (b) to Chart 27, in Chapter VII.