and the extent to which there are similarities in the business cycles of leading industrial countries. Let us now examine somewhat more closely the economic conditions in a few of the leading countries of emigration and the concurrent state of prosperity or depression in the United States, with the object of ascertaining, if possible, what influences are primarily responsible for cyclical fluctuations in migration. The countries to which chief attention is given are the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy. Also the fluctuations in emigration to the United States from Russia, Sweden, and Austria-Hungary are briefly analyzed.

IMMIGRATION FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM

During the early decades of the nineteenth century the United Kingdom contributed the major part of the immigrant stream to the United States; and, with the enactment of the quota laws of 1921 and 1924, which allotted relatively large quotas to the northern European countries, British immigration has again been brought into a position of relatively large importance."

Degree of Agreement between Business Cycles in the United States and the United Kingdom.

In several previous studies of business cycles, attention has been given to the extent to which business cycles move synchronously in Great Britain and the United States. Professor Alvin H. Hansen, in his study of cycles in industrial conditions in the years 1902 to 1908, by months, reached the conclusion that the cyclical movements in the United States and Great Britain are quite closely concurrent." Also, Professor Warren M. Persons and his associates, in a study of British economic conditions, demonstrated that, with certain noteworthy differences, there was a marked similarity in business cycles in the United States and Great Britain in the years 1903 to 1914, but that the British index, however, frequently lagged after that for the United States; and Miss Dorothy S. Thomas, in a recent study, finds, for the same period covered by our analysis (1870 to

In this chapter the term "British" is applied to the entire United Kingdom, including Great Britain and Ireland, and, unless so specified, references to "Great Britain" do not necessarily include Ireland.

"Alvin Harvey Hansen, Cycles of Prosperity and Depression in the United States, Great Britain aud Germany—Á Study of Monthly Data 1902-1908, University of Wisconsin Studies in the Social Sciences and History, Number 5.

"The Review of Economic Statistics, Supplement, June, 1922, "An Index of British Economic Conditions, 1903-1914," by W. M. Persons, N. J. Silberling, and W. A. Berridge.

1913), a high degree of agreement between fluctuations in economic conditions in these two countries.

The reader may form his own conclusions concerning the degree of this similarity by examining the composite indices for the United States and Great Britain in Chart 40 or 41. The general similarity is fairly obvious, but so also are certain differences. The British turn in 1879, and also in 1886, is a year later than the corresponding movement in the United States; a decline in 1888 and 1889 does not appear in the index for the United Kingdom as it does in the composite index for the United States; 1892 is a year of improvement in the United States but not in Great Britain; the index for the latter country recovered in 1894 but that for the United States continued to decline; the decline of 1896 in this country has no equivalent movement in Great Britain until 1897 and continues there in 1898; the boom in the early part of the century came in 1900 in Great Britain and in 1902 in the United States; and the depression of 1908 continued in 1909 in Great Britain, but the latter country did not experience a depression in 1911.

Peculiarities in the Immigration from the United Kingdom.

We have a graphic representation of the changes in the movement of immigration from England and Ireland in Chart 32, page 156, covering the years ending June 30, 1880 to 1914. In terms of the conditions shown by our industrial composite for the United Kingdom, in the boom years of the early eighties, immigration was high, particularly from England in 1882 and Ireland in 1883. With the industrial decline to 1885 and 1886, immigration likewise declined. The next peak in immigration appears in 1888, simultaneously with a period of business revival in Great Britain. The next ten years are marked by a decline in the number of immigrants from England and Ireland, varied only by a slight recovery in Irish immigration in 1891 and an accentuated decline for both countries in 1894, followed by a temporary recovery in 1895. If we allow for a few months lag, we find some movements which suggest that bad conditions in the United Kingdom diminish emigration, and some which indicate the contrary. The decline in 1894 follows the depression of 1893, the rise in 1895 follows the temporary revival in Great Britain in 1894, and the accentuated decline in the year ending June 30, 1909, accompanies depression conditions in Great Britain. But, on the other hand, the immigration boom, particularly 'Dorothy S. Thomas, Social Aspects of the Business Cycle, pp. 149-151.

from England, in 1903 to 1905, and in 1905 from Ireland also, accompanies a period of decline or depression in British industry.

At first inspection, all this appears somewhat confusing; for in some years an increase in immigration from these countries appears to coincide with good conditions; in others, with bad conditions. / As a second method of approach, we turn to Chart 34 on page 159. This chart shows the fluctuations in the ratio of immigration from the stated country to total immigration. The most striking movements in the English and Irish curves are the sharp decline in the year ending June 30, 1892, and the sharp increase in 1895 and again in 1904 and 1905. Evidently, if we consider only British conditions, we reach the conclusion that the hard times which existed there in the latter part of 1890, and in 1891 and 1892, materially checked emigration from the United Kingdom as compared with the movement from other countries; and that the marked increase in 1895 may be associated with the revival which occurred in Great Britain in 1894 and the spring of 1895. On the other hand, the rise in 1903, 1904, and 1905, which is relative as well as absolute, occurs in years which are marked by declining industrial activity in Great Britain.

It is evident from the above that even a comparison between conditions in Great Britain and fluctuations in the ratio between total immigration to the United States and that from England and Ireland does not lead us to a clear-cut conclusion concerning the relation between immigration and economic conditions in the home country.

We get a better indication of the causes of cyclical fluctuations in emigration from the United Kingdom if we compare this emigration movement with economic conditions in both the United States and Great Britain (Chart 41).

Emigration and Economic Conditions in the United States and the United Kingdom.

With the aid of Chart 41, we can make visual comparison of the relation between cycles in emigration from the United Kingdom to the United States and the concurrent economic conditions in these two countries. The emigration curves do not agree closely and consistently with economic conditions in either country; but there is a fair degree of agreement in major features. Good business conditions common to both countries are usually accompanied or closely followed by high emigration, and bad conditions by low

CHART 41

BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND EMIGRATION FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM: 1870-1913.

Cycles in Emigration to the United States Compared with Business Conditions in the United Kingdom (Fig. A) and the United States (Fig. B)

Deviations from seven-year smoothed moving averages, expressed as multiples of their standard deviations

emigration; but where conditions in the two countries are not similar, the emigration movement appears to agree somewhat better with the index for the United States than with that for the United Kingdom.

These instances where the migration movement differs from one business cycle curve but agrees with the other are of special interest. The beginning of recovery in emigration in the late seventies and in 1886 agrees best with the concurrent changes in the index for the United States. Also, in the years 1888 and 1889, and in 1894 and 1896, the emigration curve and the United States composite, but not the British composite, decline. On the other hand, the decline in the emigration movement in 1901 and 1902 can be explained more plausibly by reference to economic conditions in Great Britain than to those in the United States, for 1902 is a boom year in the latter country. The emigration boom in 1904 coincides with depression in both countries. The recovery in emigration in 1909, despite the continuance of depression in the United Kingdom, evidences the effect of industrial recovery in the United States.

The tentative conclusion upon the basis of the evidence presented in Chart 41 is, that the general movements in economic conditions in the United States and the United Kingdom are similar, and that prosperity in the two countries ordinarily means higher emigration from the United Kingdom to the United States; depression, lower emigration. When, as not infrequently happens, the cyclical changes in the United Kingdom come somewhat tardily as compared with the similar movements in the United States, the movement in emigration usually agrees more closely with the ups and downs of industry in the latter country. The emigration decline of 1902 and the boom of 1904 are not, however, consistent with this explanation. It may be suggested that by allowing a lag of one or two years we may find a good correspondence between depression in Great Britain and emigration therefrom. But upon examination of the curves for such possible relations, we find that with a one year lag attributed to emigration there is no consistent agreement, either direct or inverse, between British business conditions and emigration. With a two-year lag there is a moderate degree of inverse correlation, that is, a tendency for poor business conditions in Great Britain to be followed two years later by increased emigration to the United States, and for good conditions to be followed by decreased emigration. However, for the period as a whole, this agreement is not as close as that found between concurrent conditions of prosperity