CHAPTER IV IMMIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES PRIOR TO 1890 Economic Motives for Migration. Even with no direct knowledge of the statistics of immigration, one would be led to expect that variations in economic conditions in the United States would exercise a large influence upon the number of incoming aliens. It will be granted that the hope of economic betterment is not the sole motive for emigration. Religious or political persecution, racial discrimination, or the mere love of adventure may be the impelling force. But, in the main, the emigrant is a seller of labor, seeking the best price for his services, and hence not apt to be attracted by a stagnant market. Furthermore, for many prospective immigrants the financing of the trip becomes easier when times are prosperous in the United States, for at such times friends and relatives who have previously emigrated are in a better position to remit funds for the trip. Approximately one third of the total number of immigrants have their passage paid by relatives. Even those who pay their own way are apt to find it easier to obtain the necessary funds in periods of prosperity in the United States, for, as we shall note more in detail in a subsequent chapter, periods of prosperity in the United States are ordinarily accompanied by prosperity in the country of emigration, when savings are more readily accumulated and property more easily disposed of. Lastly, the increasing facility of communication tends, we should expect, to decrease the lag between industrial slumps and the consequent decreases in immigration. Opinions of Authorities on Immigration Problems. The arguments just cited for expecting a close relationship between fluctuations in industry and immigration are uniformly supported by the conclusions of various authorities who have given consideration to this problem. 132.1 per cent in the seven fiscal years, 1908-1914, inclusive. "See discussion of this point in Chapter VIII. L For example, in the reports of the U. S. Industrial Commission, the conclusion is reached, after a comparison of the course of wholesale prices and immigration, "that there is a striking coincidence, since the year 1868, between business conditions and the volume of immigration" so that "it may be said that immigration since the Civil War is a reflection of industrial conditions." However, that the adjustment of migration to employment conditions is not perfect is suggested by J. W. Jenks and W. Jett Lauck in their analysis of the immigrant as a dynamic factor in industry. "The statement," they say, "that the influx and the outgo of foreign-born workmen automatically adjusts itself to activity or stagnation in mining and manufacturing is only partly true." In the subsequent pages we shall examine the evidence concerning migration and industrial conditions in an effort to determine the accuracy of the a priori reasoning and of the opinions just cited. Does the volume of migration ebb and flow with industry? Do some elements in immigration show the readier response? Is this response imperfect? First let us turn our attention to the earlier period for which the evidence is less detailed and the picture consequently less clear-cut. The Periods Selected. For convenience of analysis the years for which immigration data are available for the United States (1820 to date) are divided in this study into four main periods—namely, the seventy years from 1820 to 1889, inclusive; the pre-war quarter century, 1890 to 1914; the war period, 1914 to 1918; and the post-war years, 1919 to 1923. This division, although somewhat arbitrary, finds justification partly in essential differences in the character of migration and employment movements in the several periods, and partly in variations in the adequacy of the available statistical data. However, in the following analysis there has been no rigid adherence to the chronological boundaries just mentioned. These somewhat arbitrary limits have been ignored whenever it has appeared that the objects of our inquiry would be furthered by extending the analysis of a particular phase beyond the termination of the period in which the analysis begins. United States Industrial Commission, Reports, Vol. XV, Immigration, p. 305. 1 Characteristics of the Period Prior to 1890. The period prior to 1890 may appropriately be designated as the agricultural frontier period, in that the existence of great areas of tillable free land doubtless affected materially the character of immigration during these decades. The data for analysis of this period are restricted to annual or, at best, quarterly statistics of immigration, with only such evidence of emigration as is afforded by statistics of the annual totals of outgoing passengers, virtually no statistics of employment, and only limited statistics of production. Also these seventy years are characterized by the predominance of immigrants from northern and western Europe who early in the following period, even before the close of the nineties, were outnumbered by those from southern and eastern Europe. It is to this period prior to 1890 that we shall first turn our attention. Imports of Men and of Merchandise. A preliminary survey of the approximate relation between immigration and business conditions over the entire period for which data are available will afford a convenient starting point for the more precise and detailed analysis which is possible for the shorter periods for which there are more adequate data. In the earlier decades of the nineteenth century there are no employment statistics and few records of industrial activity, but statistics of the value of annual imports of merchandise are available and, inasmuch as these vary with industrial activity in the importing country," except in war years, they furnish an approximate measure of industrial conditions. In Table 18 and Chart 10, we have the cycles in the annual statistics of immigration and of merchandise imports. The curves represent deviations from seven-year moving averages, and hence picture the condition in a given year relative to the three immediately preceding and three following years. For convenience in comparison the deviations are divided by the standard or typical deviation for the respective series. An examination of the evidence afforded by the fluctuations of immigration and imports for the whole period appears to support the preliminary hypothesis reached on a priori grounds; namely, that the current of immigration is markedly susceptible to changes in industrial conditions. "See Chart 4 on page 41. "For similarity of fluctuations in imports to those in pig iron production, for example, see Charts 6 and 7 in Chapter III. An examination of Chart 10 reveals that, on the whole, particularly after the Civil War, each of the marked swells or troughs in the import curve is accompanied, in the same year or within the succeeding year or two, by a somewhat similar fluctuation in immigration. This fact may be made more obvious by concentrating our attention on those periods which are customarily designated as depression years. CHART 10 CYCLES IN IMPORTS OF MEN AND OF MERCHANDISE: 1820-1923. Unit-one standard deviation The discussion of periods of prosperity and depression in the United States in the following paragraphs, and in European countries in subsequent sections of this report, rests chiefly upon the recently published Business Annals compiled by Dr. Willard L. Thorp, of the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The first period of dullness after 1820 comes in 1826, following the crisis of 1825. Both immigration and imports declined in 1826, and imports continued to decline in 1827. The ready interpretation of the evidence, however, is rendered somewhat difficult by the fact that in this period neither the immigration nor import data refer to years ending December 31st." "See footnote (c) to Table 18. TABLE 18.-CYCLES OF IMMIGRATION AND of Imports of MERCHANDISE, BY YEARS, 1820-1923 Percentage deviations from seven-year moving averages, expressed in multiples of their standard deviations (26.62 per cent for immigrants, and 12.25 per cent for imports). Computed from data given in Table 1. bComputed from data published in the Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance, and the Statistical Abstract of the United States. From 1820 to 1831, the immigration data cover years ending September 30th; from 1833 to 1842, December 31st; from 1844 to 1850, September 30th; from 1851 to 1923, December 31st. The figures for 1832 and 1843 are estimated from data for fifteen and nine months, respectively. dPrior to 1843, the import figures are for years ending September 30th; after 1843, for years ending June 30th. |