duce Canada to make common cause with the thirteen colonies, or if the hopes of annexing Canada by conquest entertained by many Americans in 1812 had been realized, we would now be approving free trade between the provinces and the United States, as we do approve it between New York and New England.

But the political side of our relation to Canada is more important than the commercial. There are strong grounds for the view that Canadians and Americans should come into political unity. The British Canadians are our near kinsmen. In character and institutions they and we are essentially one. The differences between them and us are of degree they being the more conservative; or else they are artificial, based on jealousies and contentions which ought never to have arisen.

In looking at a map of North America it is difficult to believe that the entire population of the Dominion, together with Newfoundland, does not exceed that of the State of New York. For a long time to come, inhabited Canada must consist of a narrow immensely extended border-land — a situation highly unfavorable to real economic and political independence. The natural markets of the Canadians are in the United States, and the traffic of Canada should move on lines running more nearly north and south than east and west. The attempt to reverse this natural order explains the unfortunate financial condition of Canada. Moreover, the British Canadians are not solving the French problem. The province of Quebec breaks British Canada in two, and in the race contest within the province the French more than hold their own. Indeed, it is clear that New England is doing more than British Canada to Anglo-Americanize the Canadian French.

What useful or honorable thing can be named that Canada cannot better accomplish in full union with the United States, than in trying to maintain an independent career? There is nothing desirable signified by the term Canadian that is not also signified by the term American, and the latter has a certain additional significance which our neighbors need greatly to appropriate. Outside of the American Union, Canada must

remain essentially provincial. Many of her more enterprising and ambitious inhabitants will be drawn to the United States, and among these some of her most gifted sons.

To the United States, union with Canada is in every way desirable; the advantages in a military and commercial point of view are sufficiently obvious. Moreover, the conservatism of the Canadians would be an element of strength in the national life.

But what commercial policy is most likely to secure union? Restrictions might be effective if economic considerations alone determined the political conduct of peoples. But they do not. Least of all do they in the case of a high-minded and spirited people. The relation between Canada and the United States is in many respects analogous to that which used to subsist between England and Scotland. But it should be remembered that all efforts on the part of England to coerce Scotland served only to defer union and make it more difficult. If union with Canada ever comes, it should be in obedience to her wish as well as ours. The readiest way to create such a wish is to pursue a policy which recognizes the essential oneness of the two peoples. But even if we should not desire union, our true policy is not to drain but to develop Canada.

Z

XIV

THE COMMERCIAL RELATIONS OF

AMERICAN COUNTRIES1

OLL VEREINS, or Commercial Unions- of which we hear much nowadays are arrangements between politically independent countries by which, for purposes of trade, they become one country.

Free trade between the members, a common tariff toward the rest of the world, an equitable division of the revenue and import duties, made by a board in which each division is fairly represented, and systems of internal taxation sufficiently alike so as not to interfere with the common tariff, are the prominent features of such unions. Is a Zoll Verein, which shall include all important American countries, practicable? Not at present. The United States, Canada, and possibly Mexico could form one profitably; but the commercial relations of South America with Europe are closer than with the United States or Canada. To ask them, so long as this situation lasts, to enter into commercial unions with us, is idle; they could not afford to do it. Nevertheless they are wise who tell us that the people of the United States ought to extend their commercial relations with other American countries. Their views are based on the following facts: first, we need foreign markets, and for a long time to come must continue to need them. for our surplus agricultural produce; and we are beginning to need them, and in the future must need them increasingly for surplus manufactured goods; second, we are being excluded from important continental European markets; third, the mar1 The Chautauquan, March, 1889.

kets of American countries are, in important respects, naturally more favorable for us than those of Europe and if once secured would be more easily retained.

Let us look at these facts a little more closely. The idea of the sufficiency of our great home market is taking so strong a hold upon us that we are likely to forget that, great as it is, it can never release us from dependence on foreign markets. Our wealth and prosperity depend on the amount of our surplus of those products which we can produce to greatest advantage; but this surplus can be utilized only through the agency of foreign trade. We produce much more wheat, corn, meat, cotton, and petroleum than we can consume. In finding advantageous foreign markets for these products, all parts of the country and all classes are deeply concerned, for a very large proportion of the capital of the country is, through the medium of loans and deposits in savings banks, employed in their production. A second reason for turning to foreign markets is found in the situation and prospects of our manufacturing interests. At present they are in the main limited to the home market. But their development is, and should be, more rapid than the growth of that market. The people of the United States have a genius for manufacturing. Moreover a larger market would undoubtedly create a steadier demand for these products, and steadiness of demand is, in every industry, a prime condition of prosperity. But conceding the need of foreign markets the next question is, where can they be found? Europe hitherto has been our best customer. But other countries are making headway in the production of cotton, wheat, and petroleum. Of the continental states which have bought of us most largely, France, Germany, and at last Sweden have placed burdensome restrictions upon American pork and thereby corn, which is the most important of all our food products. England, against whom we are prone to rail, affords us our best foreign market. It is impossible to say to what extent the unfriendly movement in the continental markets will be carried; it is clear, however, that the forces behind it are far from being spent.

Summarized the situation is this: our surplus agricultural products are larger than ever before and promise to increase rapidly; the prime condition of the continued healthful growth of our manufactures is access to foreign markets; but at this very time, the markets of important states of continental Europe are being, in an increasing degree, closed to us. It behooves us, therefore, to find and develop foreign markets elsewhere, and one of the most promising in the fields, is the nearest that among our American neighbors. To some of them we can furnish flour and petroleum, and to all of them manufactured goods, and they can furnish us certain important food products and raw materials; while this would not release us from the need of trading in Europe, it would prevent the possibility of excessive dependence. In the development of our subject, it will conduce to clearness to discuss separately the commercial relations of the United States to Canada, Mexico, the Central American states-in which because of the isthmus we include Colombia - the West Indies, and South America.

Previous to the Civil War, the United States held a large share of the South American trade. But now, judged by the imports from the different countries, we have fallen to the fourth, fifth, and in some cases to the sixth place. How did we lose the South American trade? Among the causes, I believe that the destruction of our shipping, and the enhanced cost of manufactures, owing to the tariffs of the last twentyfive years, are the most important. How can we regain this trade? First, by the restoration of our shipping, thus permitting our merchants to own and sail foreign built vessels under the American flag, and through proper encouragement to American ship-building, and American participation in the foreign carrying trade; second, by modifying the tariff so that our manufactures in respect to the cost of machinery, buildings, raw materials, etc., can compete on equal terms with foreign manufacturers; third, by treaties through which the obstacles to trade could be removed. Since we consume more Brazilian coffee than any other people, we have a greater in