the best. The calculation of the quantity of probability might be applied to many things besides games; politics are nothing else but a kind of analysis of the quantity of probability in casual events, and a good politician signifies no more but one who is dexterous at such calculations; only the principles which are made use of in the solution of such problems can't be studied in a closet, but acquired by the observation of mankind.' The rest of the book is occupied with the demonstration, in a popular form, of a number of propositions relating to the chances of the game with dice or cards. 'A mathematician will easily perceive it is not put in such a dress as to be taken notice of by him, there being abundance of words spent to make the more ordinary sort of people understand it.' We now come to an event in Arbuthnot's life which has not previously been suspected. On October 6, 1694, two years after the publication of the Laws of Chance, Arbuthnot entered University College, Oxford, as 'Socio Commensalis,' or Fellow-commoner. The entry in the college books is simply 'Ego Johannes Arbuthnot lubens. subscribo'; there are none of the usual particulars of parentage, age, or tutor's name. Arbuthnot was then twenty-seven and it would appear that a Fellow-commoner was a man of greater age than the ordinary undergraduate, and was not compelled to enter under any particular tutor. There were at that time no less than five classes among the undergraduates: 'Socio Commensalis,' 'Generoso Commensalis,' 'Commensalis Primi, or supremi, or superioris, ordinis,' Commensalis,' and 'Serviens'; but in the eighteenth century the use of the first two titles was discontinued. The Master of University College during Arbuthnot's residence was Dr. Charlett, with whom he maintained a friendship in later life. Charlett was fond of society and was a copious letter-writer; but he was at the same time a scholar and a patron of learning. He had been made Master at the early age of thirty-seven, only two years before Arbuthnot entered the college. Such of Arbuthnot's literary contemporaries as were Oxford men-Addison, Prior, King, Atterbury-had naturally graduated several years before he went to the University; but some of them still lived at Oxford, or visited the city from time to time, and he may thus have made their acquaintance. Steele left Merton College to join the army at the beginning of the year in which Arbuthnot entered University College. A youth named Edward Jeffreys was admitted to University College on the same day as Arbuthnot, and it is evident that Arbuthnot was acting as his companion and private tutor. Edward Jeffreys was the eldest son of Jeffrey Jeffreys, Esq., afterwards Sir Jeffrey Jeffreys, of Roehampton, Surrey, and St. Mary Axe, London, member of Parliament for Brecon, and alderman of the city of London1; and on the 28th of December, 1694, a few-weeks after young Jeffreys had gone to University College, his father wrote to Dr. Charlett: I am extremely well pleased of ye character you give me of my son, and of Mr. Arbuthnot 2. The following letters from Arbuthnot, the earliest that we possess, were all addressed to Dr. Charlett 3 : 1 The entry of Edward Jeffreys' admission in the college books is as follows: Ego Edwardus Jeffreys filius natu maximus Galfridi Jeffreys Armigeri de Roughampton in comitatu Surreii lubens subscribo sub tutamine magistri Hudson.' Jeffreys, who entered as 'Primi ordinis Commensalis,' was an ordinary undergraduate, and would no doubt be considerably younger than Arbuthnot. His father obtained possession of the house belonging to the Earls of Devonshire upon the death of the last Countess of Devonshire in 1689. Hobbes had lived in this house with the last Earl, and there Sir Jeffrey Jeffreys died (Lyson's Environs of London). He was member for Brecon from 1690 to 1698, and from 1701 until his death in 1709. 2 Ballard MSS. (Bodleian), xi. 17. On April 18, 1695, William Strachan wrote to Dr. Charlett from Utrecht, 'Give my humble service to..... Mr. Arbuthnot of your College' (Ballard MSS. xxvii. 54). 59. Ballard MSS. xxiv. 56, 57, 58, Honourd Sr I hop yow will excuse my so long silence which proceeds from no principle against writing, but my stay in the contrey being but just now come to toun. We have been very well received by evry body; Mr. Jeffreys and his lady are very sensible of your care and to say truth Mr Edward behaves himself very prettily. Mr. Nick: needed no body to introduce him to his fathers affection, for he is sufficiently master of that faculty himself; however I beleive he will not come to Oxford again. Mr. Jeffreys has given me orders to doe in the window as I please, so you may assure your self ther shall be no delay, and I had spoke to Mr. Cook' ere now, but the Vice-Chanclour being resolved to doe Mr. Jeffreys the honour of a visit at his contrey house on Saturday next if his business permitt, I am resolved befor that time to carry Cook to the Vice-Chanclour. Gregory will introduce me who I beleive goes along with the Vice-Chanclour to Rouhamptoun; In a word whatever yow have to order me in that affair please to aquaint me and it shall be done. Dr. I wold desire yow likewise to excuse Mr. Edward for not writing, the fondness nowe is over & so he will have leisure to mind his duty. By my stay in the contrey yow may guess I am a stranger to news but I will trouble yow wt some when I can come by these that are good fresh especially a scheme of the Jacobites politicks. The M. of Carmarthen sitts as president of the Councill but the contest betwixt his and the other party is so high that one of them must to pot. My L. Ptland has 1 Henry Cook (1642-1700) painted an altar-piece for New College, Oxford, and was employed by William III to repair Raphael's cartoons. 2 Henry Aldrich, D.D., became Vice-Chancellor in 1692, and was Dean of Christ Church from 1689 to 1710. He was musical, and very popular. 3 Dr. David Gregory, born at Aberdeen in 1661, was Savilian Professor of Astronomy at Oxford (Irving's Lives of Scottish Writers, 1839, vol. ii. 239-267). Sir Thomas Osborne, Lord High Treasurer, was made Baron Osborne in 1673, Earl of Danby in June of the same year, Marquis of Carmarthen in 1689, and Duke of Leeds in 1694. 5 Hans William Bentinck came to England with William III, and in 1689 was created Earl of Portland. The King went abroad on May 12 (two days before Arbuthnot wrote this letter) attended, among others, by Lord Portland, who had just obtained from his royal master the lordships of Denbigh, Bromfield and Yale, in Denbighshire. The gentlemen of the county protested gott a small present from the K. of 25000 a year of the P. of Wales estate, but ther are many caveats put in agt it by those who have leases. Zuleistein' has gott another of the D. of Powis's but it was stop'd at the seall; the Duke being only a tenant for life. Dr. Gregory gives yow his service if ther is any thing I can serve yow in heir command Sr Your most humble servant Jo: ARBUTHNOTT. London: May 14, 95. Reverend Sr I call'd according to your order at Mr. Sares who carry'd me to Vandebanks, he had nothing compleat by him to shew me save a gentlemans picture wch when I look'd at in the Room I could not desern the difference betwixt it and a good fresh piece of painting till I came near and touch'd it and to say truth this is one of the main objections I have agt your Altar piece that the art is so great that it will represent to the eye a piece of painting. Mr. Sare ask'd him about Cusheons. he sayes for these things he agrees by the Dutch ell square which is of an English yard to doe it all silk will be about 50 s. and upon a worsted warp 40 s. I saw in his loom one of Le Bruns fyne pieces doing for my Lord Stowell, it will be a very noble piece when it is compleated. I have a letter from Doctor Gregory in which he gives yow his humble service, he sayes he has yours & that he has wrote to yow since, he complains of the difficulty of removing wives, he sayes Archimedes's Mechanicks wold have faill'd him ther he desires yow will excuse his stay to the V. Cha. & he hopes to be at Oxford agt the beginning of Novг. I told yow in my last letter that Mr. Jeffreys will lend yow the 100 ll. which yow may have when yow please. I have seen a great many who remember yow kindly I shan't be able to answer all the invitations I have to drink your good health. This day Dr. Ratcliff din'd with Mr. Jeffreys; he has giv'n Mr. Edward some new injunctions but he sayes he finds him almost well and that ther is no danger. to the Treasury, and then petitioned the House of Commons, which presented an address to the King, with the result that the grant was recalled. 1 William Henry de Nassau, Lord of Zuylestein, was made Master of the Robes by William III. 2 William, third Baron Powis, was created Earl in 1674 and Marquis in 1687. He accompanied James II to France and was by him made Duke of Powis. He died at St. Germains in 1696. 3 Dr. John Radcliffe, who died in 1714. Amongst other news I heard him tell he had bin this morning with S Tho: Clergis', who is in a fitt of an apoplexie and he doubts much of his recovery, so its probable the Vniversity will be putt to the pains to chuse a new member of Parlist. I find its still a question if ther will be a new one. his Matie is expected next week. The rate of guineas heir makes great disturbance in business; the receivers won't take them in the K's taxes, and this day the colliers have bin with the seven complaining of the trouble & impediments they receive in ther business on this occasion; Captn Pitts master of one of the E. Indian ships is like to ransom his ship & bring her home he comes wt sad complaints of the E. India company & this day I heard a Mercht say that if he comes home he won't give the company 50 per cent for ther stock, ther is some great roguery I can't tell what it is. Ther is like to be great opposition agt the passing of this grant of the incomes of the Principality of Wales upon my Ld Portland, the Welsh Gentry interest themselves so much agt it that they proceed to great heats, but the K's order is positive after a representation of the Lds Commissioners. To fill up the page I must tell yow that Mr. Germain' was catch'd abed wt a Lady a brewers daughter being a considerable fortune and by her freinds threaten'd into marriage who broke into the room & offer'd to pistoll him, that was the reverse of Jenny Ricks case. The Arch of Glasgow is in toun3. Ther are no new books: fearing to wearie yow I must begg leave only to remain Rd Sr Your most humble servt, London, Octobr 3d, 1695. Jo: ARBUTHNOTT. Reynd Sr I have yours and wrote one to yow last week by Mr. Jeffreys's order, which I found the other day in the counting house having been neglected; nothing else could have excus'd me. 1 Sir Thomas Clarges was member for the University of Oxford in the Parliament which met in March, 1690, and was dissolved on Oct. 11, 1695, a week after this letter was written. In the following Parlia ment his place was taken by Sir William Trumbull, Secretary of State. 2 Sir John Germain (knighted in 1698), reputed son of William III, Prince of Orange. His relations with Lady Mary Mordaunt, wife of the Duke of Norfolk, occasioned much scandal. 3 Presumably John Paterson, who was translated from Edinburgh in 1687, but was ejected soon after the Revolution of 1688. |