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ON

THE METHODS OF OBSERVATION AND

REASONING IN POLITICS.

CHAPTER XIII.

ON THE DETERMINATION OF THE HYPOTHETICAL

EFFECTS OF A POLITICAL CAUSE.

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FTER the examination in the preceding chapter, it

remains for us to inquire into the method of determining the hypothetical effects of a given political cause, either generally, or in some supposed special case. The previous inquiry concerns effects as they have actually occurred; that on which we are about to enter concerns only supposed or calculated

effects.

The general case of this problem is similar to the corresponding case in the determination of causes from effects, already adverted to.(') It requires, for example, that an answer be given to such questions as the following: "What effects does a monarchical, an aristocratic, or a democratic government produce? What are the consequences of capital punishment, of transportation, of imprisonment ? What are the effects of direct, and what of indirect taxation? What are the effects of universal suffrage, of a censorship of the press, of liberty of the press, of a military conscription ?" If an answer can be given to each of these questions, it must be general in its terms—it must be devoid of any limitation as to time, but must apply equally to the past and the future.

For the present, we must be contented

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